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Investors: 2Q revenue a sign of economic health
2009-07-12
NEW YORK - Investors want to see some new math in companies' quarterly reports. No longer content with an economy that's limping toward recovery, the stock market is looking for signs that business improved in the second quarter or at least will in the coming months. And investors will measure that by the revenue figures companies put up as they issue earnings reports during the next four weeks. Muzi.com News 10091493-1 (muzi.com)Stocks punched higher in March when a handful of companies said profits for the first three months of the year wouldn't be as dismal as feared. But many businesses achieved better-than-expected results by slashing costs, including payrolls. Muzi.com News 10091493-2 (muzi.com) Now Wall Street wants to see signs that companies are selling more goods and services -- for the health of the corporations themselves and for the overall economy. But investors are already on the pessimistic side about earnings, and that has already pulled the Standard & Poor's 500 index down 7 percent from its peak in mid-June. Muzi.com News 10091493-3 (muzi.com) Analysts polled by Thomson Financial expect earnings for the S&P 500 companies fell an average 35.5 percent in the April-June from a year earlier after falling the same amount in the first quarter. Muzi.com News 10091493-4 (muzi.com) Stocks could retreat further if companies don't provide some morsels of hope about the economy, said Jennifer Ellison, a principal at Bingham, Osborn & Scarborough in San Francisco. Muzi.com News 10091493-5 (muzi.com) "If we get some earnings surprises on the downside it could deflate the balloon," she said. Muzi.com News 10091493-6 (muzi.com) The early read from Alcoa Inc. provided evidence that companies might still be relying on cost-cutting. The company on Wednesday turned in a narrower-than-expected loss for the quarter, crediting efforts to slash expenses and raise cash. Muzi.com News 10091493-7 (muzi.com) Here are five companies that will report earnings this week. Each provides a snapshot of the economy. Muzi.com News 10091493-8 (muzi.com) Yum Brands Inc. Muzi.com News 10091493-9 (muzi.com) • Why it's important: With chains including KFC, Pizza Hut, Taco Bell, Long John Silver's and A&W All-American Food, Yum's 36,000 restaurants span 110 countries and territories. Fast-food chains tend to weather economic downturns better than sit-down restaurants because their food is cheaper. Muzi.com News 10091493-10 (muzi.com) • When it will report: Tuesday, July 14. Muzi.com News 10091493-11 (muzi.com) • What the experts say: On average, analysts polled by Thomson Reuters expect Yum to post a profit of 43 cents per share on revenue of $2.5 billion. In the same quarter of last year, the company reported a profit of 45 cents per share on revenue of nearly $2.7 billion. Muzi.com News 10091493-12 (muzi.com) • You'll know the economy is improving if: Yum's performance improves in its sluggish U.S. operations, especially at brands such as Pizza Hut that generally have higher customer checks. Better results at Pizza Hut and KFC -- which has a sizable sit-down business -- would signal that more people are opting to eat out rather than cook at home. Muzi.com News 10091493-13 (muzi.com) • You'll know the economy is not improving if: Yum's U.S. operations falter, especially at its higher-priced chains. Weak sales in Yum's important China operations would be a sign of sluggishness in the global economy. Muzi.com News 10091493-14 (muzi.com) • The quote: "I'm expecting a pretty high-quality quarter. Things are going OK in the U.S., and I think things are going a little bit better than planned in China," said Larry Miller, restaurant analyst with RBC Capital Markets. Muzi.com News 10091493-15 (muzi.com) IBM Corp. Muzi.com News 10091493-16 (muzi.com) • Why it's important: As one of the world's largest corporate technology suppliers, IBM's results say a lot about how much businesses are willing to spend on everything from computer servers to software and consulting services. But it can be tricky to read those results for clues about the broader economy. For one thing, IBM right now is booking revenue on contracts that may have been signed months or even years ago. Second, in a down economy, companies often turn to IBM's outsourcing services as a way to save money, so IBM's sales can go up even while everything else is going down. Muzi.com News 10091493-17 (muzi.com) The best way to interpret IBM's results for signs of the health of the overall economy is in the company's overall forecast. Muzi.com News 10091493-18 (muzi.com) When it will report: Thursday, July 16. Muzi.com News 10091493-19 (muzi.com) What the experts say: On average, analysts polled by Thomson Reuters expect IBM to earn $2.02 per share on $23.58 billion in revenue. In the same quarter of last year, the company reported a profit of $1.98 per share on revenue of $26.8 billion. Muzi.com News 10091493-20 (muzi.com) You'll know the economy is improving if: IBM's sales show some improvement that can't be attributed mainly to weakness in the dollar. Another encouraging sign would be if the company raises its already-bullish forecast for $9.20 per share in profit in 2009. Muzi.com News 10091493-21 (muzi.com) You'll know the economy is not improving if: IBM backs off the forecast at all. Muzi.com News 10091493-22 (muzi.com) The quote: Brian Marshall, an analyst with Broadpoint.AmTech, wrote in a research note Thursday that IBM's management has "navigated the turbulent "economic currents" over the past decade with fine stewardship," but cautioned there might be little room left for IBM to keep wringing out increases in its profit margin. Muzi.com News 10091493-23 (muzi.com) Marriott International Inc. Muzi.com News 10091493-24 (muzi.com) • Why it's important: Marriott operates more than 3,200 lodging properties worldwide, and the company's performance offers insight on travel trends and consumer spending. Demand for its hotel rooms and timeshare resorts has been weak, and investors are curious about whether business picked up with the approach of summer. Muzi.com News 10091493-25 (muzi.com) • When it will report: Thursday, July 16. Muzi.com News 10091493-26 (muzi.com) • What the experts say: On average, analysts polled by Thomson Reuters expect Marriott to post a profit of 22 cents per share on revenue of $2.54 billion. In the same quarter of last year, the company recorded a higher profit of 51 cents per share on revenue of $3.19 billion. Muzi.com News 10091493-27 (muzi.com) • You'll know the economy is improving if: Declines in hotel demand start to stabilize. If travelers are booking hotel rooms, it could mean consumer spending is increasing, despite continued layoffs nationwide. Muzi.com News 10091493-28 (muzi.com) • You'll know the economy is not improving if: Revenue per available room sinks during the quarter. Known in the industry as revpar, revenue per available room is considered a key gauge of a hotel operator's performance. Last quarter, revpar for Marriott's comparable company-operated properties dropped 19.6 percent. Muzi.com News 10091493-29 (muzi.com) • The quote: "In North America, you will see stabilization for room demand. Leisure travelers are still going on vacations but they're not going as far or not as long a period of time," said Mark Basham, a hotel and restaurant analyst with S&P Equity Research. In 2008, the company recorded 61 percent of revenue in North America. Muzi.com News 10091493-30 (muzi.com) Harley-Davidson Inc. Muzi.com News 10091493-31 (muzi.com) • Why it's important: Harley-Davidson is the top retailer of heavyweight motorcycles and its sales are closely tied to consumer confidence. A new hog, as they are called by fiercely loyal owners, is the consummate discretionary purchase and can run $20,000 or more. Muzi.com News 10091493-32 (muzi.com) • When it will report: Thursday, July 16. Muzi.com News 10091493-33 (muzi.com) • What the experts say: On average, analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters expect Harley to report a profit of 25 cents per share on revenue of $1.18 billion. In the same quarter last year, the company posted a profit of 76 cents per share on revenue of $1.4 billion. Muzi.com News 10091493-34 (muzi.com) • You'll know the economy is improving if: Operations at Harley-Davidson Financial Services stabilize. The company's financing arm has been posting steep declines in operating income due to the lockup in the securitization market, which it has long relied on for funding. If that market shows signs of life, it means the lending market is easing. Muzi.com News 10091493-35 (muzi.com) • You'll know the economy is not improving if: Harley cuts motorcycle shipments. Motorcycles are a big-ticket purchase and consumers buy them when they have money to burn. Last quarter, the company stood by its shipment guidance of 264,000 to 273,000 bikes. Muzi.com News 10091493-36 (muzi.com) The quote: "It is our expectation that the general economy and deteriorating employment numbers could hinder significant increases in motorcycle purchases," KeyBanc analyst Scott Hamann wrote to investors on Tuesday. Muzi.com News 10091493-37 (muzi.com) Bank of America Corp. Muzi.com News 10091493-38 (muzi.com) • Why it's important: Bank of America may help investors determine where the economy is headed since so much of its business depends on consumers and housing. The bank has about 55 million consumer and small business customers, making it vulnerable to delinquencies and defaults, yet also ready to thrive when the economy recovers. But the bank has internal issues, especially since CEO Ken Lewis' management ability has been questioned following BofA's acquisition of Merrill Lynch & Co. The bank has received $45 billion in bailout funds, but it's not known when it will repay the government. Muzi.com News 10091493-39 (muzi.com)
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