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Experts say U.N. agencies spin data
2007-09-20
Numbers don't lie -- or do they? When it comes to public health, figures are seldom straightforward. Last week, UNICEF announced what it described as a "major public health success": child deaths dropped to a record low of 9.7 million worldwide in 2005. But on Friday, the same figure was cited by a study in the medical journal, The Lancet, as evidence the decrease in child mortality has slowed. "I don't see how you can look at that number and say this is cause for optimism," said Dr. Chris Murray, the study's lead author and director of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington. The disagreement underscores the often political nature of data and the way in which agencies use it to promote their agendas or to attract donations. "There's a lot of spin taking place with these numbers," said Lancet editor Dr. Richard Horton, who was unconnected to the study. According to Murray's study, which was funded by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and the Norwegian government, the rate at which children are dying is falling by only 1.3 percent every year. That's much less than the 2.2 percent annual rate seen between 1970 and 1985. Murray, a former senior official at the World Health Organization, said agencies involved in fundraising and working in countries should not also be responsible for charting what progress is being made. "I am sure everyone at UNICEF is committed to doing the right thing," he said. "But there is a clear conflict of interest." Tessa Wardlaw, UNICEF's chief of strategic information, said data is always open to interpretation. "We welcome the debate and any new input for improving the methodology," Wardlaw said. She said that UNICEF expected incoming research, which had yet to be analyzed, to show more positive trends.
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